I-soda ash idlala indima eqakathekileko emabubulweni amanengi, lapho ibubulo lengilazi lithatha ama-60% wokusetjenziswa kwephasi loke.
Ingilazi yamashidi yingcenye ekulu khulu yemakethe yengilazi, begodu ingilazi yezitja yingcenye yesibili ekulu khulu yemakethe yengilazi (Umfanekiso 1). Ingilazi yokulawula ilanga esetjenziswa emaphanelini welanga yindawo ekhula msinyana yokufunwa.
Ngomnyaka ka-2023, ukukhula kwesidingo se-China kuzokufikelela esigabeni esiphezulu se-10%, ngokukhula okupheleleko kwamathani ayizigidi ezi-2.9. Ukufunwa kwephasi loke ngaphandle kwe-China kwehle ngo-3.2%.
Amandla wokukhiqiza umlotha we-soda azokuhlala azinzile hlangana nomnyaka ka-2018 ukuya ku-2022, njengombana amaphrojekthi amanengi wokunweba ahleliweko alibazisekile ngebanga lomtlhago we-COVID-19. Kuhlekuhle, i-China yalahlekelwa mthamo we-soda ash ngesikhathi lesi.
Kodwana, ukukhula okukhulu khulu esikhathini esifitjhani kuzokuvela e-China, okufakahlangana amathani ayi-5 wezigidi zomkhiqizo omutjha obiza kancani (wemvelo) ozokuthoma ukukhula phakathi kuka-2023.
Woke amaphrojekthi amakhulu wokunweba e-US esikhathini esidlulileko enziwa yi-Genesis, ezakuba namandla ahlanganisiweko angaba ziingidi eziyi-1.2 zamathani ekupheleni komnyaka ka-2023.
Ngomnyaka ka-2028, kulindeleke bona kufakwe amathani ayi-18 wezigidi zamandla amatjha ephasini loke, lapho ama-61% avela e-China kuthi ama-34% avela e-US.
Njengombana amandla wokukhiqiza akhula, isisekelo sethekhnoloji naso siyatjhuguluka. Isabelo se-soda ash yemvelo emandleni wokukhiqiza amatjha siyakhula. Isabelo sayo emthamo wokukhiqiza wephasi loke kulindeleke bona sifike ku-22% ngo-2028.
Iindleko zokukhiqiza i-soda ash yemvelo zivamise ukuba phasi khulu kunalezo ze-soda ash yokwenziwa. Ngalokho, amatjhuguluko wethekhnoloji nawo atjhugulula ikhefu leendleko zephasi loke. Ukuncintisana kusekelwe ekunikelweni, begodu indawo yendawo yamandla amatjha nayo izokuthinta ukuncintisana.
I-soda ash likhemikhali eliyisisekelo elisetjenziswa ekusetjenzisweni kokugcina okuhlobene khulu nepilo yethu yangelanga. Ngalokho, ukukhula kwesidingo se-soda ash bekuvame ukuqhutshwa ziinarha ezithuthukako. Kodwana, ukufunwa kwe-soda ash akusaqhutshwa yikukhula komnotho kwaphela; umkhakha wezebhoduluko nawo unesandla ekukhuleni kwesidingo se-soda ash.
Kodwana, amandla we-soda ash eensetjenzisweni zokugcina kunzima ukubikezela. Amathuba wokusebenzisa i-soda ash emabhetri, kufaka hlangana amabhetri we-lithium-ion, ayinkimbinkimbi.
Kunjalo nangengilazi yelanga, begodu ama-ejensi wamandla weentjhabatjhaba ahlala abuyekeza ukubikezela kwawo kwamandla welanga ukuya phezulu.
Ukurhwebelana kudlala indima eqakathekileko ekukhiqizeni i-soda ash, njengoba amaziko wokukhiqiza angahlali atholakala eduze neendawo ezifunwa khulu, begodu ikota ye-soda ash ithuthwa hlangana neendawo ezikulu.
I-United States, i-Türkiye ne-China ziinarha eziqakathekileko embonini ngebanga lomthelela wazo emakethe yokuthutha. Kubakhiqizi be-America, ukufunwa kweemakethe zokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kungumtjhayeli oqakatheke khulu wokukhula ukudlula imakethe yangekhaya evuthiweko.
Ngokwesiko, abakhiqizi be-America bakhulise umkhiqizo wabo ngokukhuphula ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle, ngokusizwa yisakhiwo seendleko ezincintisanako. Iimakethe ezikulu zokuthutha zifaka hlangana i-Asia yoke (ngaphandle kwe-China nezwekazi le-India) kanye ne-South America.
Nanyana inesabelo esiphasi ekuthengiselaneni kwephasi loke, i-China inomthelela omkhulu emakethe ye-soda ash yephasi loke ngebanga lokutjhuguluka kokuthunyelwa kwayo ngaphandle, njengombana sele sibonile umnyaka lo.
Njengombana kutjhiwo ngehla, i-China yengeza amandla amakhulu ngo-2023 nango-2024, okwakhuphula ukulindelwa kokunikela ngokweqileko, kodwana ukungeniswa kwe-China kwafinyelela amazinga aphezulu engcenyeni yokuthoma ka-2024.
Ngesikhathi esifanako, ukuthengisela ngaphandle kwe-US kukhuphuke nge-13% ngonyaka eenyangeni ezihlanu zokuthoma zomnyaka lo, begodu inzuzo ekulu ivela e-China.
Ukukhula kweemfuno e-China ngo-2023 kuzokuba namandla khulu, kufikelele emathanini angaba ziingidi ezingama-31.4, khulukhulu kuqhutshwa ngilazi yokulawula ilanga.
Umthamo we-soda ash we-China uzakwanda ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-5.5 ngo-2024, ukudlula lokho okulindelwe esikhathini esifitjhani sokufunwa okutjha.
Kodwana, ukukhula kwesidingo kuphinde kwadlula lokho okulindelweko umnyaka lo, lapho ukufunwa kukhule ngama-27% qobe mnyaka engcenyeni yokuthoma ka-2023. Nangabe izinga lokukhula lamanje lizakuragela phambili, isikhala hlangana nokunikelwa nokufunwa e-China angeze sisaba sikhulu khulu.
Inarha le iragela phambili nokwandisa amandla wokukhiqiza ingilazi yelanga, begodu amandla woke alindeleke bona afinyelele emathanini angaba ziingidi ezingama-46 ngoJulayi 2024.
Kodwana, iimphathimandla ze-China zitshwenyekile ngamandla wokukhiqiza ingilazi yelanga begodu zicoca ngemigomo evimbelako. Ngesikhathi esifanako, amandla we-photovoltaic afakiweko we-China akhuphuke ngamaphesenti ama-29 ukusuka ngoTjhirhweni ukuya kuMeyi 2024, ngokuya kwe-National Energy Administration.
Kodwana, ibubulo lokukhiqiza amamojuli we-PV le-China kuthiwa lisebenza ngokulahlekelwa, okwenza bona ezinye iifemu ezincani zokuhlanganisa zingasebenzi nofana ziyeke ukukhiqiza.
Ngesikhathi esifanako, iSewulapumalanga ye-Asia inenani elikhulu labahlanganisi bamamojula we-PV, inengi labo eliphethwe batjalimali be-China, abathengisi abaqakathekileko emakethe yamamojula we-PV we-US.
Ezinye iifemu zokuhlanganisa kubikwa bona zisanda kujama ukukhiqiza ngebanga lokuthi urhulumende we-US ususe iholideyi yomthelo wokungeniswa kwepahla. Iindawo ezikulu zokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwengilazi yelanga ye-China ngamazwe weSewulapumalanga ye-Asia.
Nanyana ukukhula kwesidingo se-soda ash e-China kufinyelele emazingeni aphezulu, ukufunwa kwe-soda ash ngaphandle kwe-China kuhluke khulu. Ngenzasi kuneenhlolo ezifitjhani zesidingo kiyo yoke i-Asia ne-Amerikha, eveza eminye yemikhuba le.
Iimbalo zokungeniswa zinikela ngesitjengiso esiwusizo semikhuba yokufunwa kwe-soda ash kiyo yoke i-Asia (ngaphandle kwe-China nezwekazi le-India) ngebanga lokukhiqiza kwamandla wendawo aphasi.
Eenyangeni ezihlanu ukuya kwezisithandathu zokuthoma zika-2024, ukungeniswa kwesifunda kufikelele emathanini ayizigidi ezimbili, okuyi-4.7% ukudlula isikhathi esifanako somnyaka ophelileko (Umfanekiso 2).
Ingilazi yelanga mtjhayeli omkhulu wokufunwa kwe-soda ash kiyo yoke i-Asia, begodu ingilazi yamashidi nayo ingaba negalelo elihle.
Njengombana kutjengisiwe emfanekisweni 3, kunamaphrojekthi amanengi wamandla welanga kanye nengilazi ephaphathekileko ahlelwe esifundeni engangezelela amathani angaba yi-1 miliyoni weemfuno ezitjha ze-soda ash.
Kodwana, ibubulo lengilazi yelanga nalo liqalene neentjhijilo ezithileko. Iinthelo zamva nje ezifana neentengo zokulwisana nokulahla kanye neenthelo ezibekwe yi-United States zingathinta ukukhiqizwa kwamamojula we-photovoltaic emazweni afana ne-Vietnam ne-Malaysia.
Iinthelo zezinto ezenziwe e-China zifuna bona abakhiqizi emazweni la bathole izinto eziqakathekileko ebathengisi abangaphandle kwe-China ukubalekela iindleko eziphezulu. Lokhu kukhuphula iindleko zokukhiqiza, kwenza bona kube budisi ukuphakelwa, begodu ekugcineni kuzokwenza bona kube buthakathaka ukuncintisana kwamaphaneli we-PV weSewulapumalanga ye-Asia emakethe ye-US.
Abahlanganisi abanengi bamaphaneli we-PV we-China eSewulapumalanga ye-Asia kubikwa bona bajame ukukhiqiza ngoMgwengweni ngebanga leenthelo, begodu ukukhiqiza okunye kungenzeka eenyangeni ezizako.
Isifunda se-Amerikha (ngaphandle kwe-US) sithembele khulu ekuthengiseni izinto ezibuya ngaphandle. Ngalokho, amatjhuguluko woke wokungeniswa kwepahla angaba yinkomba ehle yokufunwa okuqakathekileko.
Idatha yakamuva yokurhweba itjengisa ukutjhuguluka okumbi kokungeniswa kwepahla eenyangeni ezihlanu ukuya kwezilikhomba zokuthoma zomnyaka, ukwehla nge-12%, nofana amathani wamamethrikhi ama-285,000 (Umfanekiso 4).
I-North America, ngokude, yabona ukwehla okukhulu, kwehla ngama-23% nofana amathani ayi-148,000. I-Mexico yabona ukwehla okukhulu. Umkhakha omkhulu we-soda ash we-Mexico, ingilazi yezitja, bewubuthakathaka ngebanga lokutlhogeka okubuthakathaka kweenselo ezidakayo. Ukufunwa kwe-soda ash e-Mexico akukalindelwa bona kukhuphuke bekube ngu-2025.
Ukungeniswa kwempahla evela eSewula Melika nakho kwehle khulu, nge-10% ngonyaka. Ukungeniswa kwe-Argentina kwehle khulu, ngama-63% ngonyaka.
Kodwana, ngamaphrojekthi amatjha amanengi we-lithium ahlelelwe ukuthonywa umnyaka lo, ukungeniswa kwe-Argentina kufanele kube ngcono (Umfanekiso 5).
Kuhlekuhle, i-lithium carbonate ngiyo ebangela khulu ukufunwa kwe-soda ash e-South America. Nanyana kunemizwa emimbi yakamuva ephathelene nebubulo le-lithium njengesifunda esibizako, umbono wesikhathi esiphakathi neside muhle.
Intengo yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle yabathengisi abakhulu itjengisa amatjhuguluko emandleni wemakethe yephasi loke (Umfanekiso 6). Intengo e-China ivamise ukutjhuguluka khulu.
Ngomnyaka ka-2023, inani eliphakathi le-China lokuthunyelwa ngaphandle bekuyi-US$360 ngethani le-FOB, begodu ekuthomeni komnyaka ka-2024, intengo bekuyi-US$301 ngethani le-FOB, begodu ngoMgwengweni, yehlela ku-US$264 ngethani le-FOB.
Ngalesosikhathi, intengo yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-Turkey beyiyi-US$386 ngethani le-FOB ekuthomeni komnyaka ka-2023, i-US$211 ngethani le-FOB ngoNobayeni ka-2023, begodu i-US$193 kwaphela ngethani le-FOB ngoMeyi 2024.
Kusukela ngoTjhirhweni ukuya kuMeyi 2024, intengo yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-US beyiphakathi kwe-$230 ngethani le-FAS, ngaphasi kwentengo ephakathi ye-$298 ngethani le-FAS ngo-2023.
Ngokupheleleko, ibubulo le-soda ash lisanda kutjengisa amatshwayo wokusebenza khulu. Kodwana, nangabe ukukhula kwesidingo samanje e-China kungagcinwa, ukuthengwa okukhulu kungenzeka kungabi kumbi njengombana bekusaba.
Nanyana kunjalo, ukukhula okunengi lokhu kuvela emkhakheni wamandla ahlanzekileko, isigaba lapho ukufunwa kwawo okupheleleko kunzima ukubikezela ngokunembileko.
Idivitjhini yezemakethe yamakhemikhali ye-OPIS, i-Dow Jones & Company, izokusingatha i-17th annual Soda Ash Global Conference e-Malta kusukela mhlazi-9 ukuya ku-11 kuSewula umnyaka lo. Ummongo womhlangano waqobe mnyaka uthi "I-Soda Ash Paradox".
Umhlangano we-Global Soda Ash Conference (qala ngesinceleni) uzakuhlanganisa izazi zephasi loke nabadosiphambili bebubulo abavela kiyo yoke imikhakha yemakethe ukuzwa ukubikezela kweengcwethi zebubulo le-soda ash nemikhakha ehlobene nayo, ukucoca ngokutjhuguluka kwemakethe, iintjhijilo namathuba, nokuhlola umthelela wokutjhuguluka kwemikhuba yemakethe yephasi loke, kufaka hlangana nokuthi imakethe ye-China izokuthinta njani iphasi loke.
Abafundi be-Glass International bangathola isaphulelo se-10% kumathikithi womhlangano basebenzisa ikhodi ye-GLASS10.
U-Jess mSekela loMhleli we-Glass International. Bekasolo afunda ukutlola ngokuhlakanipha nokutlola ngokobuchwepheshe kusukela ngo-2017 begodu waqeda idigri yakhe ngo-2020. Ngaphambi kokujoyina i-Quartz Business Media, u-Jess bekasebenza njengomtloli ozisebenzako eenkampanini ezihlukahlukeneko neencwadi.